Fiscal Spending and Health Outcomes in Nigeria

The study investigated the nexus between fiscal spending and health outcomes in Nigeria. The motivation stemmed from the persistent paradox wherein increased government expenditure on health has not translated into improved public health, despite deliberate fiscal efforts. The study adopted a quantitative econometric framework grounded in fiscal policy and human capital theory. Using annual time-series data from 1991–2023 sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and UNDP, the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) model was estimated after pre-tests for normality and multicollinearit. Health outcomes proxied by the Human Development Index were regressed on fiscal health expenditure, economic growth, and corruption. Empirical results revealed that economic growth (β = 0.844097; t = 5.548867; p < 0.05) and corruption (β = 0.478607; t = 3.074518; p < 0.05) have significant positive effects on health outcomes, while fiscal health expenditure (β = −1.118225; t = −8.170007; p < 0.05) exerts a significant negative effect. The coefficients, all statistically significant, suggest that fiscal spending has failed to translate into improved health performance, likely due to inefficiencies and fund mismanagement. The study concludes that rising fiscal spending without transparency diminishes health outcomes. It recommends that Nigeria strengthen fiscal discipline, align expenditure with service delivery efficiency, and integrate anti-corruption mechanisms within the health financing system to ensure sustainable welfare improvement.