INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MULTIDISCIPLINARY COMPARATIVE STUDIES (IJMCS)
Urban Form as a Seismic-Risk Multiplier in a Low-To-Moderate Hazard City: Planning, Density, and Environmental Management in Abuja, Nigeria
E-ISSN: 4089-4904
P-ISSN: 4279-4976
DOI: https://iigdpublishers.com/article/1600
Urban earthquake risk is commonly elevated solely in terms of ground motion, but the effects of shaking are influenced by the urban arrangement, infrastructure and institutions of the exposed population. The paper investigates how residents perceive urban planning and environmental factors contributing to seismic susceptibility in Abuja FCT Nigeria, providing the only representative urban risk study within the larger mixed-methods thesis. It is distinguished from companion papers in a household preparedness study and an integrated seismic risk framework. From 180 residents selected by proportional sampling, information has been collected through pre-coded household survey, supplemented by site-visit, interview and GIS identification of communities associated with present and past tremor perception, to arrive at frequencies, percentages, perception indices. An overwhelmed majority believe that poor planning and management aggravate seismic risk (66.7%), and believe communities are vulnerable (61.1%). Population density and settlement environment associations produce a 77.4% perceived vulnerability index, with 57.8% believing crowding intensifies safe response. Infrastructure receives the highest perceived vulnerability index (81.5%), followed by population density/settlement environment (77.4%) and structural integrity (74.8%). Implication for a framework of planning-mediated risk builds on quantification of a risk pathway by associated factors: uncontrolled rapid urban growth, resulting in high dense settlements and geopolitical fragmentation, together with fragility of erected infrastructure, constrained access and uncertain site conditions, triggers moderate dynamic shaking into major impacts. Results are perceptions and screening criteria, not engineering damage probabilities. Risk-sensitive development controls, well distributed open spaces and access, linked emergency routes, geotechnical screening, settlement microzonation and multi-hazard planning audit are recommended. Future research should tie settlement profiles to building structures and site responses.
JIBRIN AHMED AHMED, J. I. MAGAJI, A. T. OGAH, S. Y. KPALO & UMMI A. S.
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