INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING, FINANCE AND MANAGEMENT (IJAFM)
SIN TAXES AND PUBLIC HEALTH OUTCOMES IN EMERGING ECONOMIES: EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA (1990-2025)
E-ISSN: 5669-4522
P-ISSN: 2567-3562
DOI: https://iigdpublishers.com/article/1621
This study examined the effect of sin taxes, specifically; tobacco and alcohol excise taxes, on public health outcome in Nigeria, with noncommunicable diseases (NCD) mortality as an index of public health. Time-series data for the past 36 years (1990 - 2025) were analysed. The study used ex-post facto design to compare pre-reform period (1990- 2017) with post-reform period (2018-2025) through the estimation of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model containing the lagged tax variables, a post 2018 reform dummy, interaction terms and a deterministic trend for time. The results indicate that the tax burden on tobacco (β = -0.62, p = 0.004) and alcohol (β = -0.48, p = 0.009) have negative significant relationships with NCD mortality. The delayed health benefits (lagged values) are also negative and significant. Mortalityreducing effects of tobacco taxation (β = -0.41, p = 0.004) and alcohol taxation (β = -0.29, p = 0.020) is found to be negative and significant, indicating that the impact of excise taxation on mortality became stronger following the 2018 reform. The reform dummy is negative (β = -4.30, p = 0.065), suggesting a relatively minor drop in the structural level of NCD mortality rates in the post-reform period. The study findings show that Sin taxes are effective fiscal tools to enhance public health outcomes in emerging economies like Nigeria. It recommends a progressive raise in excise taxes, improvement in the enforcement and compliance system and the use of some sin tax revenues for NCD prevention and health promotion programmes.
Nyoreme Mabamidje, Rosemary E. Uagbale-Ekatah PhD & Martha Onoshakpokae PhD
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